![]() ![]() That offense is something he brings more so than the player he’s replacing. ![]() Still, it was good enough for second on defense in Tampa Bay behind only Hedman (by a wide margin of 1.18 points per 60). But when accounting for the expanded usage and actual playing time, his scoring rate did decrease his 1.3 points per 60 last year were the worst of his career. Technically, so have his point totals, close to a career-high of 38 last season. So far in his NHL career, Sergachev’s steadily seen his ice time rise up to an all-situation average of 22:28 last year. Second, they extended Sergachev a year before his contract to first-pair caliber money (eight years, $8.50 million AAV).īased on his NHL career so far, there’s a reason why the team felt confident enough for this leap. First, they moved out a key part of their defense. Now with McDonagh out of the mix, it’s Sergachev’s time to shine in an expanded role. The Lightning had one of the deepest blue lines on the left side thanks to Victor Hedman at the top, McDonagh in the middle, and someone as strong as Mikhail Sergachev down on the third pair. While he still performed well in Tampa Bay this past season, management had to project where his game was going to trend and act accordingly. One of those subtractions was Ryan McDonagh and the four remaining years of his contract carrying a $6.75 million cap hit. If a team wants to stay on top in the salary cap world, subtractions are necessary. Is Mikhail Sergachev ready for primetime in the top four? We’re excited to see how a franchise that always answers the call does so this season. The model’s bearish sentiment regarding the team’s chances – relative to their usual place within the league’s hierarchy – reflects those losses. The Lightning always find a savvy way to replace talent, whether that’s internally or externally, but that’s still a lot of talent that has left over the past two seasons. With that being said, there are only so many personnel losses a team can endure – even this team. It doesn’t factor in that this team, more than any other in the league, has a heart of a champion. The Lightning come into the season with a six percent chance of winning the Stanley Cup, eighth in the league, but that’s based on the projected strength listed here and a treacherous path through the Atlantic Division. They’ll very likely make the playoffs with a 90 percent chance and that’s where they instantly become one of the league’s most terrifying teams. That’s why there should be few qualms about the team’s projected 103.3 points, or their ranking outside the top five. Tampa Bay knows what it takes and there is no sense doubting what they’re capable of. They have the It Factor and killer instinct that other teams are desperate to find. The Lightning are the epitome of a team that knows how to win, a franchise oozing with championship pedigree. Maybe the team wins its third straight title if they were allowed to run it back, but being close at all is a testament to the Lightning Machine. Better than fine, really, considering the team still found its way back to the Stanley Cup Final. It was a similar story last year though when Tampa Bay lost its entire third line – Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow – and the Lightning did just fine. That’s pretty neat and tidy, perfectly explaining why the Lightning land where they do. Add 5.6 points to this team’s forecast and the Lightning end up at 109 points, one point off last year’s totals. In Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh, the Lightning lost two key pieces from their championship roster – and 2.8 wins of value. If any team can do it, it’s them – but for now Tampa Bay shockingly begins the season outside the top five. After an offseason where the team lost key contributors, the Lightning may have to fight their way back toward the top. ![]()
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